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Thursday, October 24, 2019

Trade and Sustainable Development

Vital Interests:I want to start this conversation with your overall view of where the world is now in terms of trade and development. Your recently published book The Willing World: Shaping and Sharing a Sustainable Global Prosperity received a good deal of attention and praise. Is it still possible to think in terms of global prosperity, or are we retrenching and looking for hard times ahead?

James Bacchus: I'm someone who believes that we have a duty of optimism. I am optimistic about our hopes for global prosperity. At the same time, I'm realistic; and realistically, we are heading in so many wrong directions in the international economy and especially in international trade as part of the international economy - it is difficult to recite them all. One of my hopes for the upcoming presidential election is that at some point  those seeking the presidency, and those seeking election and reelection to the Congress and Senate, will come to grips with these issues in an affirmative way. So far, I have not seen the affirmative and unifying leadership I believe we need from anyone who is seeking public office.

VI: You're talking about the situation in the United States election. This is a global phenomenon, how do you see this playing out?

All other issues must be seen through the prism of the urgency of confronting climate change; this includes trade.

James Bacchus: This is a global phenomenon, but I think that what happens in the United States is central to what the outcome is going to be globally. So much of the turmoil in the current global economy has been caused by the United States. Much of that can be traced, in my view, largely to one person - Donald Trump. In particular, he has stirred up all kinds of incipient chaos in international trade. Broadly speaking, the United States is retreating from its many decades of bipartisan support for international cooperation in trade and in many other areas of global concern. This is undermining the ability of all countries to work together toward sustainable global prosperity.

But no one country is alone to blame for this global retreat. In echo of the United States, the retreat from international cooperation is now happening in many places. Yet, without the renewed leadership of the United States for multilateral cooperation in trade and much else, we will not be able to advance toward prosperity and especially toward sustainable prosperity in the global economy.

VI: The prosperity you are talking about also involves developing countries. They are not getting assistance or direction from the United States. And assistance from other countries, or from the international organizations, seems to be frozen in place as well. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently released a report on what needs to be done to just provide enough food for the world to eat. 

Without some kind of leadership on international and domestic fronts, will these be hollow recommendations that have no chance of being implemented?

James Bacchus: That's absolutely true. When I speak of prosperity, I speak of global prosperity; I speak of prosperity for everyone and I speak of prosperity, I'm really speaking about sustainable development. I am working hard along with many, many others worldwide to try to achieve the sustainable development goals of the United Nations as part of the UN agenda for 2030. As I stated in my book, I believe most of the solutions we need must be found in local and regional partnerships of the willing that can be sealed up and linked up worldwide. This can only be achieved within new and enhanced enabling frameworks of global and other international rules that are upheld through the international rule of law. To succeed, these rules and frameworks must for the first time see and treat economy and environment as one.

VI: A decade ago the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) nations were thought to be an emerging force in the world that would insist on an agenda to assist the developing world. This coalition seems to have fallen apart?

James Bacchus: The developing countries of the world are much in my thoughts in terms of development, and I'm working worldwide with many others on ways to help further sustainable development in developing countries. Part of the problem they face is that they have not received the financial aid, technical assistance, and help in capacity building they need and, in many respects, have been promised by developed countries. This is certainly true in terms of financing for mitigation and adjustment to climate change.

The United States and other developed countries have not kept promises they made to developing countries for help in confronting climate change. This is also true, for instance, in terms of a lot of the promises that have been made in the WTO treaty on technical assistance for developing countries and on technology transfer to the least developed countries.

I'm someone who believes that we have a duty of optimism. I am optimistic about our hopes for global prosperity. At the same time, I'm realistic.

To achieve sustainable development, countries must seek growth in the right way. A decision to close markets to foreign competition is not a decision that promotes development - closing the doors to the wider world is a decision to embrace less in the way of development and development itself must not be seen solely in terms of growth and GDP. It must be seen within the context of the overall human development envisaged in the social, environmental, and economic goals of the UN SDGs. This is something that is missing in many parts of the world.

VI: As the United States pulls back from the rest of the world, others have stepped up their involvement. China, for example, is investing aggressively in infrastructure and extractive industries throughout Asia, Africa and Latin America. What do you think of this direction?

James Bacchus: China has made remarkable economic strides over the past generation. Hundreds of millions of Chinese have been lifted out of poverty since the opening of China to the wider world by Deng Xiaoping three decades ago. Many, however, are of the mistaken notion that China has grown because China continues to have a command economy directed and planned by the state. This is not true.

Most of Chinese growth can be attributed to the opening of the Chinese market to the wider world through freer trade and freer investment. The Chinese people, of course, have every right to choose their own future, including how they wish to organize their economy. Unfortunately, now the current leadership in China seems to have turned away from freer trade and freer investment and toward more managed growth. In turning away from market solutions, the Chinese risk undermining their continued growth and their hopes for advancing further up the ladder of comparative advantage toward a broader and enduring competitiveness and prosperity for the Chinese people.

VI: Do you think China’s overseas involvement is substantial or is just a passing phase?

James Bacchus: The Chinese are simply resuming their rightful place in the world. China is returning in many ways to its role for centuries up until the 19th century as a leading economy in the world. I do not foresee China returning again to what it was during its decline in the 19th century and the first half of the 20th century. The Chinese have much influence in the world, and especially in the developing world. At this point, they do not have the influence, much less the potential influence, that we Americans have, and the even more influence that we can still have if we redirect our interests to international engagement and international cooperation. I am hopeful that, starting in January 2021, China and the United States will begin to cooperate again, especially on climate change.

without the renewed leadership of the United States for multilateral cooperation in trade and much else, we will not be able to advance toward prosperity and especially toward sustainable prosperity in the global economy.

VI: As you look at the world, are there any bright spots of countries that are undertaking model development policies that others could look to?

James Bacchus: There are bright spots within countries. There are millions of bright spots. These bright spots are the innovative networks of thousands upon thousands of people at the grassroots of the world who are coming together and working together in new networks to advance sustainable development. Whatever discouragement we may rightly feel about what's happening and not happening at national levels throughout the world, there is much encouragement to be found in the progress of people working together in new kinds of ways in the local communities and regions of the world.

Here in central Florida, I'm engaged now in launching, in eight counties inhabited by nearly 5 million people, what we call a regional resilience collaborative that is intended to galvanize regional efforts to achieve sustainable development. including addressing climate change. This is only one such effort in the United States, there are many others in the U.S. and worldwide -- all resources of encouragement. 

VI: In other words, these models of positive efforts can spread across the world because of social media and the ability to connect to share technologies, expertise and innovative knowledge?

James Bacchus: The links are essential and the links are everywhere. One of the goals is to create more links within communities, within states and provinces, within regions, within countries, and, not least, internationally. I am much engaged in numerous efforts to create such links, along with many others among the willing who are seeking what I call “the willing world.”

In turning away from market solutions, the Chinese risk undermining their continued growth and their hopes for advancing further up the ladder of comparative advantage toward a broader and enduring competitiveness and prosperity for the Chinese people.

To my mind, two things are needed now. First, we must do all we can nationally and internationally through politics and other conventional means to turn the world around and back toward international cooperation and toward sustainable development. Second, we must continue and intensify all of these local efforts worldwide to create innovative action networks to undertake initiatives in our own communities and link to similar networks elsewhere. In doing that, we can accomplish important strides towards sustainable development even in the absence of the right kind of national and international political cooperation. We can also put in place through these voluntary efforts models and constituencies that will provide the support for moving forward more rapidly once we have secured the right kind of political leadership. Grass-roots progress can help identify and encourage the right kind of leadership, and the right kind of leadership can help inspire more Grass-roots progress. This can lead to national and international progress from the bottom up.

VI: You still see a role for the established NGO community? The WTO, the UN, UNDP, and other organizations that have traditionally been in charge of development around the world. Are they outdated or can they be reformed and play a positive role?

James Bacchus: We need to improve the international institutions we have and we need to create more of them. We certainly do not need to undermine them and abolish them, which is where the current leadership of the United States seems to be trying to lead us. NGOs are an important part of providing positive support for international progress through international institutions. They can help point international institutions in the right way. I'm involved with great many NGOs that are working hard for a willing world.

VI: So their expertise and their ability to provide support both financially and morally to groups that are striving around the world for bettering their society and participating in, as you said, a willing world for the future is still important?

James Bacchus: Yes. Moreover, we need to do much more to enable not only NGOs, but also individual people and groups of people everywhere, to participate in new kinds of ways in international institutions. 

VI: What do you think should be top priorities for candidates regarding trade and development?

There are millions of bright spots. These bright spots are the innovative networks of thousands upon thousands of people at the grassroots of the world who are coming together and working together in new networks to advance sustainable development.

James Bacchus: Overwhelmingly, the overriding issue as a nation and as a world is confronting climate change. All other issues must be seen through the prism of the urgency of confronting climate change; this includes trade. As I detail in numerous recommendations in my book, trade must be re-imagined in ways that help us further the goals of sustainable development, including the goal of confronting climate change. Addressing climate change is Goal 13 among the 17 Sustainable Development goals of the United Nations.

We must begin to see trade and investment and all other commerce as they truly are. They are all conducted within the context of our environment  and of our overall ecology. We cannot truly benefit from trade policies or trade rules that are separate and apart from our concerns environmentally and especially relating to climate change. We must frame and uphold trade policies and trade rules  within the context of these broader environmental, ecological, and climate concerns. The rules we put in place for trade, the laws we enact for trade, the rulings we make about trade must all see our economy and our environment as one and the same.

As an American, I'm looking for a presidential candidate who understands this and will say this to the American people because this urgently needs to be said and heard. I'm hoping, too, that other political leaders throughout the world will begin to say these same things and advocate these kinds of policies and rules.

VI: Do you see any candidate out there at the moment on the campaign trail who is articulating these kinds of ideas?

James Bacchus: On the presidential level, I'm pleased to see that a number of the Democratic candidates are saying much more about climate change than in the past. I was especially impressed by the fact that my former colleague in the House of Representatives, Governor Jay Inslee of Washington state, centered his presidential campaign on the issue of climate change. Sadly, he found too little support for his campaign and had to cease his candidacy months before even one person voted--which speaks volumes about the sorry state of our current process of choosing our presidents.

NGOs are an important part of providing positive support for international progress through international institutions. They can help point international institutions in the right way.

Again, I would like very much to see all these candidates focus their campaigns not only on climate change as the most urgent issue of our time, but more broadly on the issue of sustainable development, which includes addressing climate change. We are in the midst of a transition in our economy, and we need to hasten that transition in the right ways and with the right bold and creative leadership. This should be what we talk about more than anything else in the 2020 election campaign. And this applies not only to presidential candidates but to all candidates for office in the United States.

VI: If the candidates are going to talk about these key issues - climate change, how it affects trade and development, the sustainability of the country and the planet - should Institutions within the United States also be taking the front row on this? 

James Bacchus: Yes, but the Trump administration is doing everything it can to oppose and dismantle any means of positive and creative action by the federal government on climate change, and all other issues of social, economic, and environmental sustainable development.

VI: What do you think is the real motivation for that? These are such pervasive and understood problems - confirmed by scientific expertise. What can be their mindset?

James Bacchus: Our pervasive political inertia is motivated by short-sighted selfish interests that  are trying to secure privileged positions in the economy by influencing politicians. Politicians are yielding to these interests because they need their money for their campaigns to secure their election and reelection. This fuels gerrymandering and other political obstacles to necessary climate and sustainability actions. The dark heart of our political dysfunction is that we have unlimited, and, in many respects, undisclosed funding of political campaigns in the United States. Here I agree with Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado, one of the presidential candidates. He has said that if we don't address the damage being done to our republic by unlimited and undisclosed political spending, then we won't be able to do anything about climate change or anything else.

VI: If it gets down to campaign financing and the role of the very influential lobbyists that the Trump administration is doing very little to rein in, is the whole idea of draining the swamp just rhetoric?

James Bacchus: The problem is, Trump has put the swamp in charge of virtually every environmental and other issues relating to sustainable development, and we have witnessed a pullback by every federal agency from protecting our environment for  the health and safety of the American people. This is not surprising. These are the consequences of electing these kind of people. Elections have consequences. Despite what many Americans believe, all politicians are not alike.

I would like very much to see all these candidates focus their campaigns not only on climate change as the most urgent issue of our time, but more broadly on the issue of sustainable development, which includes addressing climate change.

VI: You would support candidates who are taking the lead on issues of campaign finance reform and limiting the role of lobbyists and moneyed interests in Washington?

James Bacchus: Absolutely. In 1978 the Supreme Court decided that spending money in a political campaign is a form of speech and is therefore protected by the First Amendment. That was a fateful decision that has led us to this woeful state of affairs. There have been other decisions since that have made the situation even worse, such as the Citizens United verdict. I believe the very premise of these decisions is wrong.

VI: Is there a final recommendation you would make to candidates, other than they should address the dire consequences of climate change and link it to trade and development? 

James Bacchus: My recommendation to all candidates is to tell the people what they need to hear, not just what they want to hear. That's real leadership. Many political candidates fear that, if they are candid and honest with the people, they will lose the election. I believe the American people are desperate for real leadership that trusts them with the truth.

 
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James Bacchus is the Distinguished University Professor of Global Affairs and Director of the Center for Global Economic and Environmental Opportunity at the University of Central Florida. He was a founding judge and was twice the Chairman – the chief judge – of the highest court of world trade, the Appellate Body of the World Trade Organization in Geneva, Switzerland. He is a former Member of the Congress of the United States, from Florida, and also a former international trade negotiator for the United States. He is a Global Fellow of the Centre for International Governance Innovation in Canada and an Adjunct Scholar of the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C. He is the Pao Yue – Kong Chair Professor at Zhejiang University in Hangzhou, China. He served on the High-Level Advisory Panel to the Conference of Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, chairs the global Commission on Trade and Investment Policy of the International Chamber of Commerce, and chaired the global sustainability council of the World Economic Forum.